Normal is OK

The first of the month has arrived and after checking my journal for the past two years, looking at this same date, I can tell you that the weather is normal. Normal is good.

The news this morning? Yes, it’s normal as well. But not necessarily ‘good’. One of the first things I noted was this piece about Israel. The comparison is obvious. Bush and Olmert. Olmert and Bush.

Olmert Rebuked by Israeli Panel on Lebanon War

By STEVEN ERLANGER and ISABEL KERSHNER

An Israeli government commission accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of having decided hastily to go to war and neglecting to ask for a detailed military plan.

And then I spotted this. Mr. Wolfowitz has been loudly proclaiming his innocence all week, but now this? A deal? Do you need to make a deal when you’re innocent?

Wolfowitz hints at resignation deal

Times Online - 25 minutes ago - Paul Wolfowitz, the embattled president of the World Bank, has indicated for the first time that he could step down

I have been reading the book, Made to Stick, by Chip and Dan Heath. Great book. Anyway, one of the included articles was about intuition and how it can fail us. Since I am an Intuitive Type (Myers-Briggs Type INFP) I was very much interested in this.

Try your own intuition on these questions. Which of the following events kill more people?

1. Homicide or suicide?

2. Floods or tuberculosis?

3. Tornadoes or asthma?

Of course you already know that the least obvious will be the correct answer…otherwise I wouldn’t have asked, right?

The answers; 50 % more people commit suicide than are murdered. 50%! There are 9 times more deaths from tuberculosis than from floods. And there are 80 times more deaths from asthma than from tornadoes. Those are big differences!

Interestingly, the authors also include some facts about Halloween candy and our perception of that holiday. We all know the stories about poisons and razors blades being found in candy that was being given out by malicious persons. Terrible! But not true. In a study of all police reports/news reports since 1958, not one case has been found of strangers harming children by tampering with their treats. Yes, there were two deaths…but they were caused by an uncle of one child and the parents of another. So we have more to be worried about from relatives and not strangers. Yet most of us believe the Halloween candy story.

And it’s the same thing today with most scary headlines. Humans are very gullible. In fact, we seem to enjoy that, as we allow it so often.

I know that I'm often regarded as being cynical...but it pays off! Cynical is a much better label than "misled"